Championship battles heat up - a look at points scenarios heading down the stretch...

TAD- National

The TAD National Championship is once again up for grabs with a five horse race going down the stretch. Duane Shields, Bill Reichert, Jim Whiteley, Joey Severance and Chris Demke all have mathematical shots at winning the title. Shields, Reichert and Severance will be racing at the Reading national event this weekend.

Shields sits on top of the pack with a narrow 22 point lead over 5-time Defending Champ Bill Reichert. He has attended 7 nationals and 7 divisionals, leaving him one of each to claim. He has a second round loss from Houston he can replace on the national side, so if he goes to the semifinals, he will start adding points to his total. He also has a second round loss on the divisional side from Charlotte he can add points. His maximum points total if he wins-out is 808.

The Champ, Reichert, is no stranger to late season points battles. The Rislone team knows how to get it done in the 4th quarter. He, too has been to 7 nationals and 7 divisionals, giving him one more race on both to claim. He has a second round loss at Norwalk he can replace, so if he makes the semifinals, he will start adding points. However, he would have to win the event to overtake Shields. On the divisional side, he must win his last event to make up any points as he is replacing a runner up. His maximum points total is 765 if he wins-out.

Whiteley, who has been in the title mix for the past few years, still has a shot, but he will basically need to win out and not have Reichert or Shields increase their current totals. He is currently 42 points out of first. The YNot team has been to 7 nationals and 7 divisionals, giving them one of each to claim. He has a semifinal from Las Vegas on the national side to replace and a second round on the divisional side to replace. Our money is he waits until the upcoming Vegas national and divisional to make his final stand. His maximum points total if he wins-out is 755.

Severance is a bit of a dark horse, but has the least amount of races and a whole pile of points up for grabs. He already has a perfect divisional scorecard with 5 wins. So far he has only attended 4 nationals, so he will collect full points this weekend in Reading. He is currently 76 points out of first, but a win in Reading could give him the points lead. After whatever he does in Reading, with two national events remaining, he can replace a first round loss and a second round loss (or two first round losses if he loses first round in Reading).

Last, but not least by any means is Demke in fifth place, 170 points out of first. While a long shot, anything can happen. He has been to 7 nationals but only 4 divisionals. He has a second round loss in Seattle to replace on the national side. On the divisional side, he will collect full points at his next race, then has a first round and a runner-up to replace. The way the points stand now, he has to win three of his next four races with a runner-up at one of them to tie Shields. If he were to win-out, his maximum points total is 754.

This should be a good dogfight down to the end. Shields and Severance have the best positions for improvement, but Reichert is 'peaking at the right time.' Shields has shown the capability to run low .20s right there with Reichert. Severance is arguably the best leaver in the category and has run in the .20's before. Given a few breaks, Whiteley and Demke have had quite a bit of success in Vegas.

Shields is in the driver's seat. A Shields win in Reading this weekend takes it down to a two-horse race: Shields and Severance. Reichert, Whiteley and Demke would all be mathematically eliminated. A Reichert win and Shields runner-up would give Shields a one point lead going into their final divisional. That divisional would presumably be the Division 2 closer in Reynolds, Ga. There, Reichert would have to win to add points, and Shields would 'only' need to reach the final. Again, a Reichert win and Shields runner-up would give Shields a one point lead. It would be very interesting to see if Severance would chase them down, trying to 'block' one of them from adding to their total.

Severance will still be in the mix, no matter how he does in Reading. Obviously, the better he does, the easier it will be for him going down the stretch. He has won several events in Vegas, so he has a slight edge there. His one national event win this year was in Seattle, which will be very similar conditions to what he will see this weekend in Reading.

More than likely Whiteley and Demke will be making their final stands on the West-Coast, presumably Vegas. Depending how the cards shuffle out in Reading, if Demke has a shot, look for him in Noble, where he won last year. He would then need to go to Reynolds, which could help him two-fold. One it could stop Shields and Reichert from picking up some points, and obviously help his own points total.

TAFC-National

The TAFC National Championship picture is a bit clearer, and it could be over with this weekend. Frank Manzo is currently leading Tony Bartone by 41 points.

A win this weekend clinches it for the 'Ace.' He has attended 7 nationals and 8 divisionals. He has a perfect scorecard on the divisional side. On the national side, he still has a second round loss he can replace. I will need to get confirmation from NHRA on the national tie-breakers, but if head to head matchups are the first tie breaker, Manzo will clinch with a runner-up finish this weekend. Bartone, has a perfect scorecard on the national side, but has only attended six divisionals so far, and has a second round and a runner-up to replace. If he were to win-out, his total would be 829. That would be Manzo's total if he were to runner-up this weekend. He currently holds a 2-0 head to head lead on Bartone (1 national - Topeka final, and 1 divisional - Bowling Green final). If it ends in a tie and national event wins are the first tie breaker, Bartone would get the nod. Granted, that would be if Bartone were to win-out. He is in the semifinals of the Houston Division 4 event that was rained out, so he certainly has a shot at winning there, and would have to win one more race, which could be a bit of a guessing game where he would go. The Houston race is not until Oct. 22, so he could skip Noble (Oct 7-9) and go to Reynolds or Vegas. Expect Manzo to be wherever he shows up. Of course, it could be over with a Manzo win or runner-up (depending on the tie-breakers). However, like we said about Reichert, Bartone is certainly 'peaking at the right time.'

I will update the scenarios after Reading this weekend, it should be fun to watch!

 

Manzo clinches

Just got word from Bob Frey who has worked out all the tiebreakers that Manzo did clinch the championship with a semifinal win. He did it in style with the quickest run in the history of the class at a 5.411/264 mph. Look out in the finals...I hear he's going for a .39...

 

Update after Reading

What a race and what a day of driving by Joey Severance.

Joey must have ate his Wheaties this morning! What a day on the tree. .007 holeshot win R2, .001 holeshot win R3, .017 in the final, loses .004.

Big time congrats to one of the heroes of the class to finally get another win after a long dry spell - Mike Kosky at his home track!

The semifinal matchup between Reichert and Severance was huge. Severance's holeshot win mathematically eliminated Reichert from the title chase.

Shields helped his cause by adding 11 points with his semifinal finish to bring his total to 734 points. No matter if Reichert were to win one more divisional, Reichert's maximum total would be 733. Shields has a second round loss to improve on, so he can add to his points by making the finals of his last divisional, presumably Reynolds.

Joey Severance moved up one spot to third with his runner-up finish, giving him 711 points. He still has a first round and a second round loss to replace on the national level. If he were to win out, his maximum total would be 808. 66 points is the magic number he needs to clinch, regardless of what Shields does at his next national. He is currently 23 points out of first. If Shields were to not add to his points total at his last race, Severance could either make a final round at one of his last two nationals to overtake him or make the semifinals at both.

Not so fast....with Shields not taking the win, Whiteley and Demke are still alive.

With only 3 divisional events left, Demke needs to attend all 3 to have a shot.

The title chase moves to Noble, Oklahoma next weekend for the Division 4 closer. The following week will be interesting to see if Severance goes to Reynolds to play the 'blocker' role. If Demke does decide to chase it and stays alive with a win in Noble, Reynolds could play a very pivotal role in crowning this year's national champ.

We'll put together an update on divisional races still alive going into the final stretch.

 

3 horse race

Chris Demke's semifinal loss in Noble today knocks him out of title contention. The best he can do is tie Reichert for second.

 

Reynolds update

We saw Reichert take out Shields Sunday in the Reynolds D2 final. The event was both driver's final points earning event, with both of them picking up 21 points.

Reichert was already out of contention, but helped his cause to stay in second nationally.

45 points becomes the magic number for third place Severance. Severance has a first round and second round loss to replace at the next two races. He can tie Shields with any combination of a runner up and semifinal at Vegas and Pomona. However, Shields would win the tie-breaker, so Severance must pass Shields to be crowned Champion. The first tie breaker is scored round wins. If they were to tie, Shields would have 29 scored round wins, and Severance would have 28. Severance's national event win came at Seattle, where they had a short field and only had to win 3 rounds instead of 4 to win the event. So in essence, Severance needs a win or two runner-ups to win the Championship. That means Severance will still be alive no matter what he does in Vegas.

Now remember, this is still very much a 3 horse race. If Jim Whiteley wins his last national event and wins his last divisional in Vegas, he will tie Shields. He would also have 30 round wins, giving him the nod in the tie breaker. However, if Severance reaches the finals in Vegas and Pomona, or wins either, he will still win the Championship.

Should be fun to watch the next few weeks!

 

And then there were two...

Duane,

Somehow I shorted you a round win, you have 30, and Whiteley's win at Denver was a 4 car field, so he could only reach 29 round wins.

So, with your runner up in Reynolds, Whiteley was eliminated from title contention.

 

Down to Pomona

With Severance's first round loss in Las Vegas, he must win Pomona to overtake Shields and win Pomona.